tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817639835630563103.post5502866034040115540..comments2023-04-17T02:14:47.087-07:00Comments on Madden-Julian Conversation: Can't let goAdamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06360196047159387762noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817639835630563103.post-12750477097470257702011-12-20T17:24:22.312-08:002011-12-20T17:24:22.312-08:00The stopped clock is right twice a day theory eh? ...The stopped clock is right twice a day theory eh? Well there may be a little truth to it, but as you say I think the models - at least some of them - deserve a little more credit than that.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06360196047159387762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817639835630563103.post-73032299261608031192011-12-19T20:46:20.663-08:002011-12-19T20:46:20.663-08:00I'm not sure I would say that the models did a...I'm not sure I would say that the models did a good job predicting the slowdown. It seems that every time I look at the forecasted RMM the models are always trying to kill the amplitude as well as the eastward propagation. It's as if they are predicting a slowdown more often than not.<br /><br />I think this has a lot to do with something Dave Raymond suggested in a paper on moisture modes and the MJO. His results seem to say that the GFS is unable to support moisture modes because the model physics won't allow a net import of moisture into the column over an extended period. <br /><br />I have a suspicion that other operational models may have a similar issue. However, I also remember the initiation of the current event was predicted rather well, so there's got to be a lot more to the models' performance in regards to the MJO.Walter Hannahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978224550408375061noreply@blogger.com